9/28/2023 0 Comments Ecmwf tropical tidbitsthis area is forecast to become a major hurricane later in the Atlantic. Mesoscale models for the United States include the NAM in various forms, the HRRR, several other WRF variants, and the Canadian RGEM and HRDPS. The mesoscale hurricane models HAFS, HWRF, and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. We have marked the area of potential development, and as you can see there are only scattered storms currently. Global models with imagery for the entire world include the ECMWF, GFS, ICON, CMC, NAVGEM, and their associated ensemble prediction systems. Below we see the current satellite imagery over west Africa we can see thunderstorm activity with tropical waves. This truly is a great chance to witness hurricane formation and also model accuracy. What is interesting, is that major weather models are already developing this region of storms into a major hurricane later in the Atlantic, while there are only scattered thunderstorms currently in Africa. It is associated with a tropical wave that is currently still deep in Africa. One very special region has emerged, just off the coast of Africa. This gives us a unique opportunity to follow hurricane formation live, from first thunderstorms to a major hurricane. Models are hinting at quick hurricane development, while the first thunderstorms are deep in Africa. The hurricane season continues, and we are already monitoring new areas of potential development.
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